Explainer
How EDGE works
Four minutes to understand every number in the app.
Step 1: The big idea
EDGE finds sports contracts on Kalshi that may be mispriced in your favor — outcomes that are both likely and underpriced. It never promises winners; probabilities are estimates.
Step 2: Kalshi price = implied probability
A Kalshi YES contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens. So its price is simply the market's probability, written in cents.
Step 3: EDGE probability (independent)
EDGE builds its own fair probability from sportsbook consensus, with the bookmaker margin (vig) removed — an unbiased second opinion, not a copy of the Kalshi price.
Step 4: Pricing edge = the gap
PRICING EDGE = EDGE probability − Kalshi implied probability
+9% means the contract looks undervalued at today's price.
A wide positive edge — the contract looks meaningfully undervalued.
A +9% edge is not a guaranteed 9% profit — it means EDGE estimates the probability higher than the current price. Estimates, not certainties.
Step 5: Why high probability isn't enough
Already overpriced. The edge is gone.
Lower chance, much better price. The smarter trade.
EDGE wants both: a good probability and a good price.
Step 6: EDGE Score (0–100)
A measure of opportunity quality — not win probability. It blends pricing edge, probability quality, sportsbook agreement, liquidity and data confidence.
Step 7: Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW
Confidence describes how trustworthy the estimate is. It drops when bookmakers disagree, injuries or lineups are unknown, data is old, or liquidity is thin.
Confidence is not probability.
Step 8: Locks
A LOCK is a high modeled probability (≥ 80%) that Kalshi is still underpricing (positive pricing edge). High chance and a good price. Still not a guarantee.
Step 9: The three build styles
Higher modeled probability, but it still requires a positive pricing edge.
Ranks by the biggest gap between EDGE probability and Kalshi price. Usually the smartest overall.
Lower probability, only when the price is genuinely attractive. Highest risk.
Only genuine locks. If there aren't enough, it refuses to pad the build.
EDGE is a probability tool, not a crystal ball. No pick is guaranteed, and EDGE never shows a number it cannot source from live pricing.